Imagine looking up at the night sky and knowing there’s a small but real chance that a giant space rock could be on a collision course with Earth.
That’s the scenario scientists are watching unfold with asteroid 2024 YR4, a 100-meter-wide chunk of cosmic debris that has triggered planetary defense protocols for the first time.
Asteroid Has a 1.3% chance of striking Earth
Discovered on December 27, 2023, by an automated telescope in Chile, this asteroid has quickly climbed to the top of impact risk lists.
Right now, calculations give it a 1.3% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032—meaning it’s overwhelmingly likely to miss us, but still worth keeping an eye on.
“Most likely, this one will pass by harmlessly,” says Colin Snodgrass, a planetary astronomy professor at the University of Edinburgh.
“But we need more telescope time to confirm that.”
Right now, YR4 has astronomers’ attention—though it’s nowhere near the civilization-ending scale of the dino-killer asteroid
