China’s baby bust just hit a new low — and it’s raising uncomfortable questions about the country’s future.
Official figures released Monday show births fell to a record low last year, even as Beijing throws incentives at young families.
So how bad is it? Only 7.92 million babies were born nationwide in 2025 — the fewest since records began in 1949.
That’s a birth rate of 5.63 per 1,000 people, and it marks the fourth straight year China’s population has shrunk.
In just one year, births dropped 17%, while deaths outpaced arrivals by a wide margin.
The bigger picture is even starker. The UN warns China’s population could slide from 1.4 billion today to just 800 million by 2100.
And despite scrapping the one-child policy years ago, the decline has only accelerated.
Birth Rate Pressures
Why aren’t young couples having kids? Many point to sky-high living costs, career pressure, and caring for ageing parents.
A burden felt sharply by a generation of only children. “The support isn’t enough,” is a common refrain.
Beijing has tried to sweeten the deal: cash subsidies for toddlers, free public kindergartens, and even a new tax on contraception.
But so far, the response has been muted.
China now ranks among the world’s lowest birth-rate countries, just behind Japan.
The question lingering over all this is simple — can policy nudge people into parenthood, or is the demographic die already cast?
